Rebecca Costa

Dr. Joseph Tainter gives a compelling and realistic description of the collapse of the Roman Empire in his book The Collapse of Complex Societies.

Like me, Tainter dismisses single-cause explanations such as the recruitment of barbarian mercenaries who weakened the Roman army, or unsound economic principles leading to scarcity of food and migration out of the cities, or the Antonine Plague (which killed as much as half the population between 165 and 180 AD). In Tainter's view, these events simply pushed a teetering civilization over the cliff, but the pattern of collapse was observable long before the final events.

Tainter argues that complexity is a greedy institution: The bigger and more intricate problems become, the more resources are needed to combat them. Eventually, a society can't amass enough resources to fend off the problems, which have gone unresolved for a long time.

The example Tainter gives is the measurable decline in Roman agricultural production over several generations. As production was decreasing and populations were increasing, "the per-capita energy" began dropping at a dangerous rate. The Romans successfully mitigated this agricultural shortage for a short period by conquering their neighbors, which led to an immediate infusion on the metals, grains, slaves, and resources needed to sustain progress. As the empire grew, however, "the cost of maintaining communications, garrisons, civil governments, etc., increased. Eventually, the cost became so great that challenges such as invasions from the Huns and crop failures could no longer be solved simply by conquering more territory. At that point, the empire fragmented into smaller units."

Did the Roman Empire simple become too unwieldy? Or did the population grow too large, diverse, and demanding to be ruled by a single government?

Tainter believes that war, crop failures, disease, and political unrest may appear to have caused the fall of the Roman Empire, but in truth "diminishing returns on investments in social complexity" was the root cause. As Systems for commerce, governance, and defense grew more complex, the "energy" needed to manage them simple exceeded the capabilities of the Roman people.

Then, once again, as the society encountered gridlock, beliefs began to overshadow facts and rational thinking.  As large, complex problems persisted, the belief that the Roman people were a superior race grew stronger.

As the Romans became convinced of their righteous place in the world and the belief in the sacredness of Roman blood prevailed, bit by bit essential functions such as military defense were turned over to mistreated peoples. Human instincts in the form of greed, indulgence, and hedonism escalated at the same time that a dangerous dependence on foreign slaves was increasing. The Roman's belief in racial superiority prevented them from ever imagining an insurrection of inferior peoples.

Impossible!

In this way, long before the Huns invaded Rome, the conditions for collapse had already been established. 

This excerpt is from Rebecca's book, The Watchman's Rattle - for more information, click here